In the past few years the fall has indicated a change in metal pricing. Colder weather usually signals the end of a steel metal price decline or even the beginning of an uptick. That’s not the case with this October.
Steel metal prices as reported by Fastmarkets declined for busheling, shredded steel scrap and number two bundles. This led to declines in lite iron and galvanized steel pricing for our formulas for the month. Though they were slight declines the month didn’t bring the hoped for uptick in pricing that we were looking for. #1 steel scrap prices and other cut grades of steel were flat for the month in the Philadelphia market, but did decline in other markets. Because our region ships steel everywhere, even more so with the closure of the Cleveland Cliffs’ Steelton plant, declines in other markets impact us much more than ever before. We are hoping this decline in pricing for scrap steel is a short downturn that will be reversed soon. The past few years have seen November and December price increases, and deeper into winter usually yields an increase.
Steel pricing is at its lowest point since December of 2024 for heavy melt. It was at this same level for one month and before that the last time steel was this low was November of 2020! So we are talking about a level of scrap steel pricing that hasn’t been seen in about 5 years. If we were betting (and hoping), we would say we’ve hit a floor and it would be unlikely to go below this.
The outlook (at least a trading levels) is completely different, copper and aluminum have never been hotter! Copper is trading right around $5.00 per pound, nearing all time highs. Aluminum is at 1.26 per pound. These are both levels we have not seen in quite awhile and mirroring the run up in other commodities (gold, silver and precious metals) The only problem with scrap pricing is the mills and foundries don’t really need much material and they are widening spreads, meaning they are paying less compared to where these metals are being traded at. It’s not uncommon for bare brite to be (-.50 to .60 per pound) which is a high spread for the metal. Same thing for aluminum, as mills need less and less the spread widens.
The good news for the future outlook of this pricing is that for aluminum the cost of electricity is almost built into the price as it is such an electricity intensive process. And, the mere need for electricity will be driving copper prices upward, that fact has been established for some time now!
While the non-ferrous copper and aluminum markets are nothing but good news, nickel and stainless just aren’t moving upward at all, in fact nickel is under $7.00 per pound again. 304 stainless in particular has had no momentum for the past year, while 316, 330 and 310 stainless have had their moments.
We can’t predict the future but here’s hoping we see an uptick in steel and stainless steel to match the surge in aluminum and copper soon!
